By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Affected person readers, I apologize if this Water Cooler is somewhat disjointed. Doing the workup on Abbott’s letter on immigration took a bit longer than I anticipated. Extra quickly!

Hen Track of the Day

Pine Siskin, Brown, Indiana, United States. “Flock.”

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order (Riot)

“Maine’s prime court docket dismisses an attraction of a decide’s choice on Trump’s poll standing” [Associated Press]. “Maine’s prime court docket has declined to weigh in on whether or not former President Donald Trump can keep on the state’s poll, preserving intact a decide’s choice that the U.S. Supreme Court docket should first rule on an analogous case in Colorado…. In a unanimous choice on Wednesday, the Maine Supreme Judicial Court docket dismissed Bellows’ attraction of the order requiring her to await the U.S. Supreme Court docket choice earlier than withdrawing, modifying or upholding her choice to maintain Trump off the first poll on Tremendous Tuesday.”

The Constitutional Order (Invasion)

On invasion, the Structure incorporates two related texts:

Article IV, Part 4:

America shall assure to each state on this union a republican type of authorities, and ; and on utility of the legislature, or of the manager (when the legislature can’t be convened) towards home violence.

Article I, Part 10 (the “Compact Clause”):

No state shall, with out the consent of Congress, lay any responsibility of tonnage, maintain troops, or ships of struggle in time of peace, enter into any settlement or compact with one other state, or with a overseas energy, or , or in such imminent hazard as won’t admit of delay.

What then does “invasion” imply?

“The Which means of Invasion Beneath the Compact Clause of the U.S. Structure” (PDF) [Texas Public Policy Foundation]. “It ought to to begin with be highlighted that, as solely , the illegal entry of individuals into the US can’t be construed as an invasion. Nor, for a similar purpose, can the prospect of additional unlawful entry within the imminent future be so construed…. The phrase ‘truly invaded’ within the Compact Clause refers back to the presence of flesh-and-blood enemies on the soil of the invaded state. The phrase ‘imminent hazard’ in the identical clause refers to the potential of such enemies coming to be current quickly.” • The Texas Public Coverage Basis, should you take a look at the About web page, isn’t precisely composed of bleeding coronary heart liberals.

Here’s a copy of Abbott’s assertion (thanks, Elon. Severely). I’ve helpfully highlighted and annotated the Constitutional points:

[1] Article I, Part 10 (as above).

[2] I don’t see “implementing the regulation” as related, pragmatically, as a result of Biden can have his personal legal professionals who will say they are implementing the regulation.

[3] Ditto, and to be settled by impeachment, if it involves that.

[4] Ditto.

[5] Ditto.

[6] There’s trespass, however there isn’t any “invasion,” since there’s no “enmity” (all a lot of the immigrants need is jobs). Therefore Article IV, Part 4 will not be triggered.

[7] The cite is to a dissenting opinion, so not related.

[8] The textual content of the Article 1, Part 10 doesn’t “reserve to this [(?)] State the best of self-defense.” That interpretation could also be within the penumbra of the textual content, nevertheless it’s not in the textual content.

[9] “Supersedes any Federal statutes” makes the border disaster a Nullification Disaster, so this subject actually is necessary, even when Abbott is reasoning from false premises. (It doesn’t assist that the Blue Cities, with their idiotic and in the end self-canceling “sanctuary” idea, have additionally been practising Nullification.)

“”Maintain the road”: Republicans rally to Abbott’s protection in border standoff with Biden” [Texas Tribune]. “Abbott’s assertion was rapidly condemned by some authorized students, who mentioned it was blatantly unconstitutional and amounted to a usurpring of the federal authorities. ‘By this logic, states may use their very own dedication that an ‘invasion’ exists as a justification for usurping management of whichever federal insurance policies they don’t like,’ Stephen Vladeck, a College of Texas at Austin regulation professor, wrote on X, previously often called Twitter. ‘Think about blue states taking this method: ‘We’re being invaded by medication.’ ‘We’re being invaded by air pollution.’ The fitting of states to defend themselves doesn’t, and was by no means meant to, present a hook for supplanting federal authority.” • As Andrew Jackson wrote within the earlier nullification disaster:

, and whether or not or not it’s fashioned by compact between the States, or in some other method, its character is similar. It’s a authorities by which all of the individuals are represented, which operates instantly on the individuals individually, not upon the States–they retained all the facility they didn’t grant. However every State having expressly parted with so many powers as to represent collectively with the opposite States a single Nation, can’t from that interval possess any proper to secede, as a result of every secession doesn’t break a league, however destroys the unity of a Nation, and any harm to that unity will not be solely a breach which might end result from the contravention of a compact, however it’s an offence towards the entire Union.

* * *

“Trump urges states to surge Nationwide Guard to Texas as Abbott standoff with Biden accelerates” [FOX]. “Former President Donald Trump on Thursday gave his backing to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott amid the latter’s feud with the Biden administration over border safety — urging states to ship their Nationwide Guards to the border and promising to work ‘hand in hand’ with the state to fight the ‘invasion’ if he’s inaugurated once more in January 2025. In posts to Reality Social, Trump backed Abbott and accused President Biden of ‘preventing to tie the palms’ of the Republican governor ‘in order that the Invasion [sic] continues unchecked.’ A feud that has been effervescent for months between Texas and the administration exploded in latest weeks after Texas seized the Shelby Park space of Eagle Move and blocked Border Patrol from getting into — sparking protests and threats of authorized motion from the administration.” • Abbott endorsed Trump again in November 2023. Speculating freely: If Trump got here up lame — say, Trump Pressure One flew right into a cloud and all that got here out the opposite aspect was shredded aluminum and damaged glass, or the spooks someway get previous his meals taster and feed him an exploding Large Mac — that many Republican voters would look with favor on Abbott in a approach they might not on DeSantis or Haley (not to mention Romney),

“Texas Defies Joe Biden By Recruiting Volunteers To Bolster Border Combat” [Newsweek]. “Texas has continued to defy President Joe Biden on the border challenge and is providing money for Texas Navy Division members to man the border. The Lone Star State is looking for ‘to deploy border safety property to excessive risk areas to disclaim legal organizations the flexibility to illegally transfer medication and folks into Texas,’* based on TMD’s web site. This comes amid ongoing tensions between Governor Greg Abbott and the Biden administration over the border with Mexico. On Monday, the Supreme Court docket sided with the Biden administration and held that federal Border Patrol brokers have been approved to take away the razor wire put in beneath Abbott’s orders close to the border metropolis of Eagle Move. Volunteers will work with the Texas Navy Division full-time for as much as $55 per day, based on the company’s web site.” • NOTE * That’s, not an “invasion?”

“Joe Biden Faces Rising Calls to Federalize Texas Nationwide Guard” [Newsweek]. “State Nationwide Guards ordinarily fall beneath the management of their respective governors, however they are often federalized by a mechanism often called Title 10 standing, which locations them on the direct disposal of the president and protection secretary, with lively responsibility officers taking up day-to-day command. In 1957, the Eisenhower administration federalized the Arkansas Nationwide Guard after the state’s governor ordered them to forestall Black college students from attending the Little Rock Central Excessive Faculty throughout the segregation period. Beneath federal management, the Arkansas Nationwide Guard, along with federal troops from the one hundred and first Airborne Division, as an alternative ensured the scholars have been in a position to attend the college. The Texas Nationalist Motion (TNM) is campaigning for the Lone Star State to interrupt away from the US and turn out to be a totally impartial nation, utilizing what it regards because the federal authorities’s failure to manage the Texan-Mexican border as one justification. If Biden does federalize the Texas Nationwide Guard, Daniel Miller, the TNM president, is urging Abbott to massively increase and militarize the Texas State Guard and deploy them to the southern border as an alternative.” • I don’t assume even John C. Calhoun advocated that…. Readers?

“Republican Governors Band Collectively, Situation Joint Assertion Supporting Texas’ Constitutional Proper to Self-Protection” [Republican Governors Association]. “”We stand in solidarity with our fellow Governor, Greg Abbott, and the State of Texas in using each instrument and technique, together with razor wire fences, to safe the border. We do it partly as a result of the Biden Administration is refusing to implement immigration legal guidelines already on the books and is illegally permitting mass parole throughout America of migrants who entered our nation illegally. The authors of the U.S. Structure made clear that in occasions like this, states have a proper of self-defense, beneath Article 4, Part 4 and Article 1, Part 10, Clause 3 of the U.S. Structure. As a result of the Biden Administration has abdicated its constitutional compact duties to the states, Texas has each authorized justification to guard the sovereignty of our states [plural] and our nation.” • In the identical approach that authorities will not be a family, a State will not be a gunhumper “standing his floor.” See dialogue above.

“The Supreme Court docket’s Silent Rulings Are More and more Troubling” [The New Republic]. “On Monday, the Supreme Court docket lifted an injunction that had blocked Border Patrol brokers from reducing by way of razor wire put in by Texas alongside the southern border. The transfer was a victory for the Biden administration, which claimed Texas officers had obstructed them in performing border enforcement duties. It was additionally a defeat for Texas Governor Greg Abbott and his Republican allies in Austin, who’ve aggressively opposed present border-related insurance policies. When regular circumstances are heard earlier than the court docket, there are in depth briefings and oral arguments and, finally, a written choice on the ruling. However this dispute reached the justices on the “shadow docket,” the court docket’s mechanism for reviewing stays and injunctions issued by the decrease courts. Consequently, the court docket’s announcement at this stage in Division of Homeland Safety v. Texas was perfunctory and unenlightening.”

2024

Lower than a 12 months to go!

* * *

“Fed Fears Being Sucked Beneath a Trump Riptide” [John Authers, Bloomberg]. “A ultimate drawback issues politics and the way in which it impacts each the Fed’s potential selections and the information on which they’ll be based mostly. There’s a widespread perception in markets that the FOMC will need to do all it may possibly to avert a Trump victory in November, and due to this fact minimize charges earlier than in any other case. Whether or not or not that is true, it does make it tougher to chop; Donald Trump would probably name foul, and heap derision on Jerome Powell and his colleagues. It’s solely human that they’d need to keep away from that. Politics complicates the choice and makes it a lot tougher to foretell.”

“Will politics or economics win out in 2024?” [Gillian Tett, Financial Times]. “Greg Jensen of Bridgewater, for instance, thinks buyers are ‘under-discount[ing]’ the inflationary threats that would come up from any putative Donald Trump presidential victory, since Trump would in all probability appoint a compliant Federal Reserve governor, impose excessive commerce tariffs and unleash expansionary fiscal coverage. After all, central bankers themselves aren’t allowed to consider such dangers of their fashions, or not less than not formally. However dangers of this kind clarify why the Davos temper music was at odds with the market pricing. And it factors to 2 key classes: first, economists of all stripes urgently want to check supply-side points, not simply demand cycles; and second, it’s good for CEOs and buyers to hedge this 12 months. .” • Volatility!

After which there’s the labor market:

Fascinating public opinion information. Although as @medleyadvisors lined right here, theres a political tradeoff however not a macro one for immigration – it has been a key issue easing supply-side constraints in a good US labor market https://t.co/QYjH9I3p8i https://t.co/e1NdWEUpMT

— Michael Redmond (@mredmond88) January 25, 2024

The chart is complicated, because the x-axis will not be time, however points (“Tarriffs”, at left, “Immigration,” at proper). The chart reveals the distinction between “broadly accepted” and “polarizing” (within the purple field).

“The Coming Working Class Election” [Ruy Teixeira, The Liberal Patriot]. “Right here is an easy reality: how working-class (noncollege) voters transfer will doubtless decide the end result of the 2024 election. They would be the overwhelming majority of eligible voters (round two-thirds) and, even permitting for turnout patterns, solely barely much less dominant amongst precise voters (round three-fifths). Furthermore, in all six key swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—the working-class share of the voters, each as eligible voters and as projected 2024 voters, shall be larger than the nationwide common. It follows that vital deterioration in working-class help may put Biden in a really deep gap nationally and key states. Conversely, a burgeoning benefit amongst working-class voters would doubtless put Trump in a dominant place. This very development explains so much about Biden’s present poor place on the whole election polls, the place he’s working behind Trump each nationally and in most swing states. In 2020, Biden misplaced working-class voters by 4 factors, whereas carrying college-educated voters by 18 factors. Biden would have misplaced the working class by extra (and maybe the election) if he hadn’t truly carried out barely higher than Hillary Clinton amongst white working-class voters; amongst nonwhite working-class voters, particularly Hispanic voters, he did sharply worse. In present polls, we see a marked decline in Biden’s help amongst each elements of the working-class vote with the decline amongst nonwhite working-class voters if something bigger than the decline amongst white working-class voters.” • It’s nutty to bifurcate the working class by race. Teixeira simply can’t stop id politics!

* * *

Trump (R): “RNC draft decision to declare Trump as occasion’s nominee withdrawn” [Axios]. “Republican Nationwide Committee draft decision looking for to declare former President Trump because the occasion’s presidential nominee was withdrawn on Thursday, an individual aware of the matter mentioned. The withdrawal comes after Trump mentioned Thursday night that the RNC shouldn’t transfer ahead with the decision — which, if permitted, would have named him as their 2024 candidate at a time when Nikki Haley has no intention of dropping out of the race…. Trump mentioned on Reality Social Wednesday earlier than the withdrawal that whereas he enormously appreciates the RNC eager to make him their presumptive nominee, ‘and whereas they’ve way more votes than essential to do it,’ he feels ‘for the sake of PARTY UNITY, that they need to NOT go ahead with this plan.’ He continued saying he ought to do it the ‘Outdated Common’ approach, and end the method off AT THE BALLOT BOX.’” • Perhaps Democrats may take a cue from Trump?

Trump (R): “Inside Trump’s Cutthroat Conquest of Iowa and New Hampshire” [New York Times]. “That evening, the previous president and his traditional coterie of prime aides have been joined by a couple of dozen Iowa staffers headed for New York, boarding the airplane his marketing campaign calls Trump Pressure One. Not everybody was invited. Mr. Trump had misplaced Johnson County, house of the College of Iowa, by a single vote. The regional political director who had overseen the world was not given a seat on the airplane. The subsequent morning, based on two individuals aware of the matter, she was knowledgeable by a terse e mail from her supervisor that her contract with the Trump marketing campaign was not being renewed. It was the kind of ruthlessness the Trump staff had deployed within the prior 14 months: Win — or else.” Pour encourager les autres…. • This headline is misleading, as a result of some editor needed to make all of it about Trump, the character who’s in all probability invaded their desires. Nevertheless, the piece, which is value studying in full, reveals Trump on the head of a extremely efficient, well-organized marketing campaign.

Trump (R): “With Texas major looming, Donald Trump is using an improved political operation” [Dallas Morning News]. “Trump’s dominance is indicative of his marketing campaign’s stout political and voter turnout operations. He’s been relentless in locking down help in important states, together with Texas. ‘What everybody appears to neglect is that the Republican Get together in the present day has been constructed by Trump,’ mentioned GOP political advisor Matthew Langston. ‘Prefer it or not, he has had eight years within the public highlight, in order that’s an extremely highly effective pressure to must go up towards.’ His political machine is extra environment friendly than in his earlier presidential campaigns, when his recent reputation drove voters to the polls… An improved marketing campaign group has helped him keep his standing as chief of the Republican Get together at a time when his focus is break up between working for president and coping with authorized challenges…. Texas has the second-most delegates within the major race, trailing solely California. That makes it a important battleground within the Republican race for the White Home. Earlier than Trump solidified his front-runner standing, Texas would have served as a firewall. Now the Tremendous Tuesday contest may very well be his coronation. Trump’s method to locking down Texas has been replicated in different states, which is why to this point, he’s on monitor to win the GOP presidential nomination with out a lot resistance.” • Supporting the Instances story above.

Trump (R): “The Victorious, Censorious, Malicious Donald Trump” [Frank Bruni, New York Times]. “CNN, which I occurred to be watching, went stay to Nashua and stayed with him for perhaps 10 minutes, perhaps much less — the brand new trend is to mete out consideration to Trump modestly, fastidiously, lest he get too massive a megaphone for his lies — and but that abbreviated encounter offered ample data.” • I just like the informal point out of “met[ing] out consideration.” Not precisely censorship, I suppose…

* * *

Trump (R): “The conservative authorized world strains up behind Donald Trump on the Supreme Court docket” [CNN]. “As Donald Trump wages a Supreme Court docket battle to remain on state presidential ballots, a potent contingent of the conservative authorized world has united behind him. His new principal lawyer for the case, Jonathan Mitchell, is a former Supreme Court docket clerk related to the right-wing elite who devised the 2021 Texas abortion ban that helped result in reversal of the Roe v. Wade landmark choice. The Texas regulation, which included a shrewd mechanism impeding judicial overview, prompted liberal Justice Elena Kagan to refer disparagingly to its masterminds as ‘some geniuses.’ Additionally backing Trump, with ‘good friend of the court docket’ briefs, are the Republican Nationwide Committee and GOP institution forces, equally represented by elite appellate advocates who’ve labored for the justices and converse their language. They embrace former Trump Solicitor Basic Noel Francisco, George W. Bush-era authorized adviser John Yoo and different ex-clerks of conservative Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas.” • Ugh, torture advocate John Yoo, now at Stanford. Naturally.

Trump (R): “Former President Donald Trump walks out of court docket throughout closing arguments of defamation trial” [Associated Press]. “Former President Donald Trump abruptly walked out on closing arguments at his defamation trial Friday as a lawyer for author E. Jean Carroll urged a jury to award her shopper not less than $12 million damages, saying Trump had shattered her popularity and her world by unleashing a flood of hate towards her by way of his public statements branding her a liar…. The surprising departure prompted Decide Lewis A. Kaplan to talk up, briefly interrupting the closing argument to say: ‘The file will replicate that Mr. Trump simply rose and walked out of the courtroom.’ … Trump, who was not required to attend the civil lawsuit proceedings, had appeared agitated all morning, vigorously shaking his head as [attorney Roberta Kaplan’s] closing arguments acquired underway. The walkout occurred shortly after Roberta Kaplan mentioned: ‘Donald Trump has tried to normalize conduct that’s irregular.’” • The Norms Fairy!

* * *

Haley (R): “Haley Tries to Run As Outsider in State The place She Was Governor” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “You’ll be able to’t blame Haley for making an attempt to make a advantage of necessity by treating her lack of elite and standard help in South Carolina because the product of an boastful Institution she is bravely battling, simply as she did 14 years in the past (which looks as if 40 years by way of the modifications the Republican Get together has undergone since 2010). To a restricted extent, it’d even work. A wild card in her 2010 victory was an unpleasant spate of racist and sexist feedback and rumors about her (most notably undocumented claims of extramarital sexual exercise) that bolstered her picture as a brave lady of precept preventing piggy rednecks.” • These claims are documented now; the Day by day Mail printed affidavits, after which the story, oddly, dropped like a stone.

Haley (R): “Alex Castellanos: Nikki Haley “Represents A Republican Get together That Doesn’t Exist Anymore,” Donald Trump Killed It” [RealClearPolitics]. Republican strategist Alex Castellanos: “It’s a tricky scenario for Haley. She ran an awesome marketing campaign. And, by the way in which, she is a spectacular candidate. She actually has a giant future within the Republican occasion. However she represents a Republican occasion that doesn’t exist anymore and that’s the Republican occasion that’s dominated Mitch McConnell, the Washington institution, insider Republicans, and the donor class. Donald Trump killed that Republican occasion.”

* * *

Biden (D): “May weed coverage woo younger voters again to Biden?” [Politico]. “The president has seen an alarming erosion in help amongst younger voters in latest months, with a spate of nationwide and state polls exhibiting him with a slender lead — and even working behind — Donald Trump with that demographic. Weed may very well be the unlikely approach again into their hearts for Joe Biden. It’s no small matter for Democrats as a result of younger voters are a vital a part of any profitable coalition: Biden crushed Trump by 24 factors amongst voters beneath the age of 30 in 2020, based on exit polls. A latest nationwide ballot reveals that younger voters overwhelmingly help Biden’s strikes to loosen federal marijuana restrictions. A whopping 65 % of 18- to 25-year-old doubtless voters expressed help for the administration’s latest advice to maneuver marijuana to a much less stringent classification beneath federal regulation, in comparison with simply 14 % who indicated opposition. Veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, whose agency performed the survey, argues that the difficulty may assist woo again younger voters who’ve grown disaffected with Biden, significantly over his unwavering help for Israel because the outbreak of the Gaza struggle.” • Why putz round? Why not simply take marijuana off Schedule 5 1?

* * *

RFK, Jr. (I): “Democratic issues develop amid RFK Jr. poll push in battleground states” [The Hill]. “Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s announcement Tuesday that he had amassed sufficient signatures to qualify for the New Hampshire poll for the final election, after already getting on Utah’s, is drawing recent concern from Democrats over how he may rework the race… The spoiler principle — that there’s one other doubtlessly deadly pressure lurking, within the type of Kennedy — has been minimized within the discourse, not less than publicly, as Biden appears to be like to mission confidence as voting commences. That hasn’t stopped Kennedy from making an attempt to play his playing cards nicely. He has taken the bizarre step of producing a wholly new occasion as a technique to circumvent poll signature necessities for impartial candidates in states with harder benchmarks to satisfy than New Hampshire, which solely wants 3,000 signatures. In keeping with a launch despatched by his marketing campaign earlier this month, the hassle, dubbed the ‘We The Individuals’ occasion, is exhibiting that Kennedy can get on ballots in Biden’s house state of Delaware, the reliably Democratic California and Hawaii, in addition to North Carolina and Mississippi. His marketing campaign mentioned it additionally created an analogous occasion in Texas, on Democrats’ want listing every cycle, beneath the title the ‘Texas Impartial Get together.’” • Helpful map:

I’ve asterisked the swing states the place RFK, Jr. has a poll entry effort beneath approach: *Arizona, *Georgia, Michigan, *Nevada, *North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

* * *

Republican Funhouse

“Trump Privately Pressuring GOP Senators To ‘Kill’ Border Deal To Deny Biden A Win” [HuffPo]. “‘Trump desires them to kill it as a result of he doesn’t need Biden to have a victory,’ mentioned the supply. ‘He advised them he’ll repair the border when he’s president… He mentioned he solely desires the proper deal.’” Believable, however single-sourced. Extra: “Trump’s meddling generated an “emotional” dialogue in a closed door assembly between Senate Republicans on Wednesday, as senators vented their frustrations for hours in regards to the largely secret negotiations over emergency assist for Ukraine, Israel and immigration. The convention is splintering into two camps: those that imagine Republicans ought to take the deal, and those that are opposed at any price.” • It may also be that Trump doesn’t need cash to go to Ukraine.

“U.S. Senate Republicans insist they received’t bow to Trump calls for to stop immigration talks” [Missouri Independent]. “Regardless of the push from Trump to quash the talks, some Senate Republicans mentioned that they’ve an obligation to deal with the Southern border. GOP Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who endorsed Trump earlier this week, mentioned that ‘Texas can’t afford to attend 11 months,’ referring to a possible second Trump presidency in 2025. ‘Some individuals have mentioned, nicely, the (immigration) challenge goes to go away, and in order that’ll be denying President Trump the difficulty. I feel that’s a fantasy,’ Cornyn mentioned. ‘You’re not going to show off what’s occurring on the border like a water faucet, so that is going to proceed to be an issue and it’s clearly a really, potent, political challenge.’ He mentioned that whereas Trump is ‘an necessary voice,’ the Senate ‘has a job to do, and we intend to do it.’ Lankford echoed the identical sentiments, and expressed doubt that Republicans would have the ability to get substantial immigration coverage carried out beneath a second time period with Trump as a result of ‘we tried to do some immigration work whereas President Trump was president (and) Democrats wouldn’t be a part of us in that dialog, and I’m unsure that they might within the subsequent administration in that point interval as nicely.’”

Democrats en Déshabillé

“Willie Brown’s Outdated Garments Now On Sale Via Goodwill Within the ‘Willie Brown Assortment’” [SFist]. “We child you not, former SF mayor Willie Brown is now promoting his garments on Goodwill, and you’ll personal Da Mayor’s previous garments. There aren’t any fedoras on sale, however you should purchase certainly one of his puffy Patagonia vests, and… his previous coat hangers?…. It’s referred to as the Willie Brown Assortment, however the garments aren’t on the market on the rack at your native Goodwill. They’re up for bid on eBay. And eBay is a fairly normal platform for charitable bidding fundraisers…. That is apparently not the primary time Willie Brown has bought a few of his previous garments in a Goodwill fundraiser — he did it again in 2021 as nicely. So perhaps this newest batch of things simply doesn’t match anymore, or perhaps his new sidepiece doesn’t like them. So sure it’s nice that Willie Brown is doing a charitable flip for Goodwill, however he’s nonetheless no angel. Shortly after President Biden took workplace, , and apparently that’s what Brown is doing as of late. In San Francisco, that’s the kind of factor that burn lots of good will.” • What?! Discuss burying the lead!

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Demiocracy, Chapter 5: Historical past’s Hints — The Venetian Republic’s Electoral Procedures” [Equality by Lot]. “[In Venice,] to forestall tensions between the ruling households, sortition was launched as approach of appointing a brand new doge, however in an effort to guarantee solely a reliable particular person may turn out to be ruler, the process was mixed with elections. The end result was an unbelievably roundabout system that happened in ten phases over a interval of 5 days…. The Venetian system appears absurdly cumbersome, however not too long ago a number of laptop scientists have proven that this chief election protocol is attention-grabbing in that it ensured the extra standard candidates truly received, whereas however giving minorities an opportunity and neutralizing corrupt voting habits. Moreover, it helped to convey compromise candidates to the fore by amplifying small benefits…. In any case, historians agree, that the extraordinary, lasting stability of the Venetian republic, which endured greater than 5 centuries, till ended by Napoleon, could be attributed partly to the ingenious collection of ballotte. With out sortition the republic would undoubtedly have fallen prey far sooner to disputes between ruling households.” • The argument could be that this didn’t scale, but when we had extra subsidiarity?

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Covid is Airborne

Right here is one view of Far-UV:

The estimable Naomi Wu takes challenge with it right here; the entire thread is value studying:

To make clear a couple of things- no real-world Far-UVC set up has ever been discovered to exceed NIOSH or OSHA ozone limits. These limits have been in place for many years, and if they’re unsafe- that isn’t a Far-UVC challenge. That is a matter that can require a large overhaul of the…

— Nukit (@NukitToBeSure) January 25, 2024

Undecided the place I come out on this (besides I actually fear about companies screwing a blue bulb right into a high-up socket and calling it good). However the dialogue is fruitful. The airborne neighborhood on the Twitter stays the most effective round.

Sequelae

“Lengthy COVID is related to extreme cognitive slowing: a multicentre cross-sectional research” [The Lancet]. From the Summary: “We recognized pronounced cognitive slowing in sufferers with PCC, which distinguished them from age-matched wholesome people who beforehand had symptomatic COVID-19 however didn’t manifest PCC. … Collectively, these outcomes robustly show pronounced cognitive slowing in individuals with PCC, which distinguishes them from age-matched wholesome people who beforehand had symptomatic COVID-19 however didn’t manifest PCC. This may be an necessary issue contributing to among the cognitive impairments reported in sufferers with PCC.” • Yikes! Yesterday, Tom Stone requested:

Has Covid had an impact on People that encourages dangerous and excessive habits?

Driving is noticeably worse because the pandemic hit and the extremists look like extra excessive than up to now whereas the deranged ( Nuland Et Al) are behaving in an much more deranged method than they’ve beforehand.

There’s numerous anecdotal proof like this on the Twitter. However this text, to my thoughts, lends it actual backing (I understand that cognitive slowing isn’t, say, street rage per se, however one can actually see imcomprehensibly misplaced capacities as a set off.)

Elite Maleficence

How odd to characterize those that with to mission others and themselves from an asymptomatic, airborne, Stage Three Biobazard as a “cult” (though, to be truthful, little doubt the Romans felt the identical in regards to the Christians):

I gave you a vetted library of scientific research by way of PubMed of nicely over 5,000 papers on masks (and I exploit the time period colloquially to explain N95s and different well-fitted respirators). If that is an excessive amount of for you, I am glad to spoon-feed you. Pull up a simple chair, loosen up + study. https://t.co/kKh0rjySCR

— Joaquín Beltrán for Congress #FreePalestine (@joaquinlife) January 26, 2024

For Dore and his ilk, the phrase “dying cult” involves thoughts, I feel with extra purpose.

Joe, Jeff, Ashish, Mandy, good job:

The nation was promised that science could be adopted. However we’re doing the precise reverse of science and nonetheless having surges of over 100 million individuals, nonetheless killing 1-2,000 individuals per week, disabling thousands and thousands.

— Scott Squires (@scott_squires) January 25, 2024

WHO sabotages search on “airborne” and “aerosol”:

The World Well being Group is considering a substitute time period for ‘Airborne’—what are your ideas on ‘Inhalable Respiratory Particle’? https://t.co/tWFmMeA4Er

— Dalia Hasan (@DaliaHasanMD) January 25, 2024

“Inhalable Respiratory Particles unfold like smoke.” Has a pleasant ring to it!

TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new in the present day; all others aren’t up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] Even after a decline, we’re nonetheless larger than any of the surges beneath Trump.

[2] Steep decline within the Northeast!

[3] “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information shall be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

[4] “Charts and information offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your entire pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot}. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, not less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, although CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even entering into the standard of the wastewater websites that we’ve as a proxy for Covid an infection general.

[5] Lower for town aligns with wastewater information.

[6] “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] -0.7%. (It will be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and acquired examined anyhow.)

[8] Lambert right here: Proportion and absolute numbers down.

[9] Up, albeit within the rear view mirror.

Stats Watch

Inflation: “United States PCE Worth Index Month-to-month Change” [Trading Economics]. “The private consumption expenditure worth index within the US elevated 0.2% month-over-month in December 2023, consistent with market expectations, and following a 0.1% drop in November. It’s the first enhance in PCE costs in three months.”

In the present day’s Concern & Greed Index: 76 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 77 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 70 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jan 26 at 1:54:35 PM ET

Information of the Wired

“Dana-Farber retractions: meet the blogger who noticed issues in dozens of most cancers papers” (interview) [Nature]. “The celebrated Dana-Farber Most cancers Institute (DFCI) in Boston, Massachusetts, acknowledged this week that it might search retractions for six papers and corrections for a further 31 — some co-authored by DFCI chief govt Laurie Glimcher, chief working officer William Hahn and several other different outstanding most cancers researchers. The information got here after scientific-image sleuth Sholto David posted his issues about greater than 50 manuscripts to a weblog on 2 January.” And: “You latterly left your 2,000th touch upon PubPeer. What retains you coming again? [DAVID:] I benefit from the ridiculous forwards and backwards with the authors over e-mail. I care so much in regards to the animals [that are killed for life-sciences experiments] as nicely. The extent of expectation we should always have after we’re coping with animals and high-profile establishments is that they’re tremendous cautious and that they get issues proper, so it’s irritating if you see errors.” • See, we can make a distinction!

Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are tremendous! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From CW:

From Alaska. CW sends us an image of pretty snow-covered timber, plus a moose. Moose are massive, in order that snow is deep!

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