In the present day ought to be the day we see Washington begin to flip blue. With the Congress assembly to depend the inaugural votes and with the Georgia Senate runoff prone to present each seats received by Democrats, all three arms of presidency shall be underneath management of the Democratic Occasion come the inauguration.

It’s true the story isn’t over but. Members of each homes of Congress are set to object to electors from some states, and the ultimate numbers from Georgia usually are not but in. Nonetheless, it’s time to begin excited about what a blue authorities will imply for us as buyers.

The Potential Dangerous Stuff

Within the quick time period, the largest drawbacks are in all probability greater tax charges, for each enterprise and people. These might instantly hit company earnings and, subsequently, inventory costs. After that shall be extra regulation and a extra lively anti-business strategy, particularly across the huge tech firms. This shift might actually have an effect on sentiment and, with it, the markets. We have to regulate each tax and regulatory coverage going ahead, and we shall be speaking about that right here as issues unfold.

The Good Stuff

Within the quick time period, a $2,000 stimulus verify is now more likely, with a Democrat-controlled Senate prone to permit a vote and bipartisan help, led by President Trump. Given the latest weak job numbers, this cash could be a big assist. We’re additionally extra prone to see federal assist for states and municipalities, which might help one other weak space of the economic system, particularly in vaccine distribution. The upside of extra authorities spending is that we’d like it, within the quick time period. Long term, we’re additionally prone to see extra spending on infrastructure, with bipartisan help, and a extra constructive commerce coverage.

In different phrases, as standard, there shall be each good and dangerous, and the tip end result shall be someplace within the center.

Mainstream Insurance policies?

What I don’t anticipate to see are insurance policies which are wildly out of the mainstream. Even in a blue Washington, there merely aren’t the votes. Sure, the Democrats management the Home, however with a smaller minority than within the final Congress. The votes for something radical simply will not be there. Equally, even when the Democrats win each Georgia Senate seats, that takes them to 50 plus the vice chairman’s tie-breaker vote. One defection and so they not have a majority.

There are two confirmed defectors (Manchin and Sinema), together with different centrist senators, who will stop something radical. Biden himself can also be a centrist, greater than the rest. Whereas the Republicans might have misplaced the management of each homes, they nonetheless have commanding minorities that may block something out of the mainstream. In that sense, nothing has actually modified when it comes to what insurance policies will be handed.

The large distinction, then, between the final Congress and this one is just that Democrats will be capable of introduce insurance policies within the Senate and truly convey them to a vote. However they nonetheless received’t be capable of move them with out Republican help. The primary instance is prone to be the $2,000 stimulus checks, which by no means received a vote within the final Congress and sure will on this one. With bipartisan help, that’s prone to move now {that a} vote shall be allowed, and it received’t be the final invoice like this. Infrastructure spending is one other instance. The Democrats can suggest, however the Republicans will nonetheless dispose. The Inexperienced New Deal, for instance, will nonetheless be useless on arrival.

Politics As Standard

From an investor’s standpoint, whereas there are actually dangers (see above), there may be additionally loads to love right here. Whereas authorities has completed a fantastic deal to help the economic system by the pandemic, extra is required over the following couple of months. Whereas a lot has been mentioned about infrastructure spending, not a lot has been completed—and it’s wanted. In different phrases, there are numerous issues that the Democrats will need that accountable Republicans can agree with, whilst they will combat towards issues with which they disagree. There’s a actual likelihood that politics might flip again to one thing approaching what we used to name regular, the place broadly supported insurance policies move.

That may be factor. The actual takeaway right here is that, sure, Washington is popping blue. However it’s a very gentle shade of blue and one that’s prone to present spots of purple and even pink occasionally. This isn’t the blue wave; as a substitute, it is one thing a lot nearer to politics as standard. Regardless of the dangers, as an investor, I’m snug with that.

Editor’s Observe: The authentic model of this text appeared on the Impartial Market Observer.